Graph: How Cold Has It Been This Winter?

Last week FiveThirtyEight posted an article looking at weather data nationally to assess the notion that this winter was particularly cold. I am quick to caveat such claims as applications of the availability heuristic, so I loved FiveThirtyEight’s analysis to settle with real measurements whether the claim is true.

But even the shiny graphs and rigorous analysis of FiveThirtyEight left me unsatisfied on this issue. That’s because what I really cared about was my local weather. So I dug around and found some data of my own: average and 2013/14 high and low temperatures for my home of Amherst, Massachusetts.

Highs and Lows: Average vs Actual

amherst temperature actuals

First a note: I like using highs and lows rather than daily average temperatures because they feel more real to me. The temperature oscillated between these bounds on that day, but how long was it actually at that specific average temperature? That said, my results are going to resemble those I would have gotten had I used averages, so it’s not super important in this case.

The above graph is pretty messy, so we can’t really answer the question with it too well. So I made another one:

Moving Weekly Average of Deviation from Temperature Norm

Amherst temperature averages

This one can answer the question. Yes, it has been cold. Especially since late January, but also multiple times this winter before that as well.

To make this, first I subtracted the average highs and lows for each day from the actuals. For each day, this number showed me how many degrees warmer or colder it got than the mean. I then averaged these variance numbers together to get a composite number (see, doesn’t that look like average temperature?) measuring what the mean variance was from high and low temperatures. Finally, I took the moving average for each day and the three days before and after it. I did this because our perceptions of what the weather is like are influenced not only by what’s going on in the moment, but also what’s happened recently and what’s in the forecast.

The result, as you can see, shows us bizarrely cyclical trends in temperature this winter. Every 2.5 to 3 weeks, we see this measure of temperature variance cycle back to another peak or valley. I can’t think of any methodological error that would distort the results in this way (except maybe the moving average, but that shouldn’t regulate such long stretches of time), and have no reason to believe the source data are wrong, so my best guess is that it’s coincidental.

Presuming my methodology is sound, this is just the sort of graph I was looking for to explain what the temperature was like this winter. I hope you find it interesting as well.

Contra Dance Etiquette for the Guys

by Noah VanNorstrand

Video by Dave Pokorney from Contradancers Delight Holiday. Lyrics provided by Noah VanNorstrand himself.

Contra Dance Etiquette For The Guys
It’s my hope you memorize
All that I have got to say
Contra dance in a respectable way
Contra dance etiquette for the guys
It’s my hope you realize
When you’re dancing with a girl
You gotta think about more than the next twirl

First up on the docket is the older guys
Don’t worry I’m gettin’ to the younger guys
You guys are supposed to be wise, so I’m surprised
What I see happenin’ with my own eyes
Lets say you’re dancing with a girl who’s pretty and young
You think “It’s just contra dancing, I can flirt with this one”
DAAAAMN dawg, what’s wrong with you, son?
She’s fifteen and you’re sixty-one!
Don’t worry, I’m not saying you’re a pedophile
But, put on her shoes and walk around for a couple miles
What, you find may not be so kind
Old sweaty guys just might not be your style!

Doesn’t matter with whom you’re dancing
Old or young, a newbie or veteran
Stop acting like you’re broke on a payday
Grow up and respect the ladies!

Contra Dance Etiquette For The Guys
It’s my hope you memorize
All that I have got to say
Contra dance in a respectable way
Contra dance etiquette for the guys
It’s my hope you realize
When you’re dancing with a girl
You gotta think about more than the next twirl

All right younger guys, it’s your turn!
I’m gonna make your ego crash and burn
You think everyone’s in love with you well I got news for you!
It ain’t all about you, when you gonna learn to dance
Best for your partner
Best for your hands-four
Best for the whole line
Best for the entire floor
That’s the golden rule that you should live for
Stop treatin’ common sense like it’s a damn chore!
Go ahead, call me old-fashioned
But dippin’ a girl without asking is lacking compassion
I’ve seen elbows crashing
into heads that are bashing
Into the floor…what for?
Just so that you can be the hottest guy on the dance floor?

Doesn’t matter with whom you’re dancing
Old or young, a newbie or veteran
Stop acting like you’re broke on a payday
Grow up and respect the ladies!

Contra Dance Etiquette For The Guys
It’s my hope you memorize
All that I have got to say
Contra dance in a respectable way
Contra dance etiquette for the guys
It’s my hope you realize
When you’re dancing with a girl
You gotta think about more than the next twirl

You got your Ashe-villains tearin’ up the scene
But you make contradancing look a little obscene
You got your West Coast, being all cool
But you can’t dance Money Musk at Dancin’ Fool
Got your Greenfield, Cambridge, I’m your biggest fan
But you can seem a little snobby in New England
I love the dance community, it’s got a hold on me
So fellas, let’s make it better – who’s with me?

Contra Dance Etiquette For The Guys
It’s my hope you memorize
All that I have got to say
Contra dance in a respectable way
Contra dance etiquette for the guys
It’s my hope you realize
When you’re dancing in long lines
You’ve got to get her there on time

Contra Dance Etiquette For The Guys
It should not be a surprise
Keep your hand off of her butt
Thank you very much

Contra dance etiquette for the guys
It’s my hope you memorize, realize, memorize

The Massachusetts Frustration Connector

mahealthconnectorThe MA Health Connector website has been giving me such problems. Whenever I’ve tried to create an account, it tells me my passwords are wrong, even though they follow the listed password rules. Now it tells me I already have an account, but the people I’ve talked to on the phone tell me that’s not the case. The first person on the phone told me different password rules than the website does, and the second person said their systems are undergoing maintenance today and I can’t sign up even over the phone! Anyone know people who are involved with this website? It needs to be better. I think government-facilitated healthcare for everyone is a good direction to go in, but it doesn’t work if the tools don’t work.

Because you are using that word wrong

because science“Because…science!”

If you use the internet or know people who do, you might have heard this new way of using the word “because”. The Atlantic recently had a piece breaking down how this new usage differs from the traditional usage.

I’m here to proclaim my opposition to this new usage. I’m pretty confident that curmudgeonly stance is doomed to history’s dust bin, because linguistic prescriptivism is generally foolhardy. But I still think the “prepositional because” is a bad thing.

Why? Because it’s the opposite of articulation. I greatly value finding the right words to describe a complex idea. This can be done with brevity for succinct explanations in casual conversation, or with flourish and heart for more poetic uses of language. But the clumsy one or two words following the prepositional because often fail to describe well the reasons that might otherwise make up your explanation. I think that is bad for communication and bad for the English language.

Of course, the prepositional because is funny! And it has its own array of flavors. But I assert that these benefits fail to outweigh the costs of increasingly vague and assumptive language. It will probably become vastly widespread very soon, but I nonetheless recommend against its usage in this way.

Here’s why you shouldn’t ban nuts, even if you could.

Nuts come in all shapes and sizes.

Just as a community needs a variety of personalities to have a healthy discourse, a diet needs a variety of options to be healthy for the body. The Superintendent’s Office of the Amherst public schools thinks differently, apparently, and feels that they ought to ban nuts. While the nuts in Amherst are regularly a cause for frustration, and there are some people who can’t even deal with having nuts in the same room as them, I think this was a foolish policy decision.

I have two teacher friends in Amherst who used to bring nuts to school as their primary snack (teachers need protein because dealing with kids takes a lot of energy) and now they can’t anymore. They don’t really have any good replacements.

Furthermore, how can something so commonplace and inconspicuous be effectively banned? Is the policy actually practical at all? Teachers aren’t roaming the cafeteria with riding crops and trash bags examining kids’ lunch boxes, are they? If they are, there are probably nuts in other places that they should be on the look out for, including the Superintendent’s Office.

geryk
Amherst Regional Public Schools Superintendent Maria Geryk

To so dramatically force changes to the diet of so many students and staff, the School Committee, Superintendent’s Office, and Wellness Committee need to show us all numbers of how many members of the school community are seriously allergic to nut products. How many students have an anaphylactic allergic reaction just from having nut products nearby? Are we talking about two hundred students? Fifty? One? I don’t know where the cut-off is, but it certainly appears as if this decision was made without much consideration of the implications. It’s okay to acknowledge fault and reverse course; I think that would show more strength of leadership in this case than sticking to their guns.

I’m a big supporter of Maria Geryk, and I think she’s generally doing well with a very difficult job. But this is outlandish. Amherst thrives on nuts; to attempt to quash such a nut-ritious part of the diet is little more than nutty.

How Marketplace Encourages You to Punch Hippies

kai.ryssdal.marketplaceI’ve never been quite as ardent a listener of American Public Media’s program Marketplace as I have been to other public radio programs, but I do appreciate it as a well-produced program with the laudable mission of making dense and esoteric topics understandable and sexy. I also greatly enjoyed host Kai Ryssdal’s collaboration last year with PBS Frontline on campaign finance in Montana, “Big Sky, Big Money“. I also enjoyed listening to last night’s episode of Marketplace, especially the segment “How Doctors Die“.

BUT

My understanding that Marketplace revels in hippie-punching was reinforced last night. It is common for Ryssdal and others on the program to be flippant or sarcastic about initiatives and topics that are important and serious. Last night there was a piece on new labeling laws for meat in the US, and it followed in this trend:

Bad for industry, consumers don’t care

There a lot of implications I take issue with in this report.

  1. Ryssdal leads by implying that knowing where your food comes from is mainly valuable if you’re “the curious type” rather than interested in local & ethical food sourcing.
  2. After describing the new rule, he jumps straight to how meat-packers don’t like the rule. That implies we should be concerned about industry’s aversion to regulation before we think about the reasons for the regulations. Of course they don’t like having to reveal the details of their operation! There’s a lot of unethical stuff going on; that’s why it needs to be regulated.
  3. “But really, are the rest of us really going to notice?” Ryssdal implies that it’s not worth it, because consumers don’t care. But putting the information out there means that people will start thinking about it more, which can make them care more.
  4. The first interview they play is with a lawyer for grocery stores, who focuses on how the language required by the regulations is “unappetizing”. If people have forgotten that an animal was slaughtered to create their meat, they absolutely should be reminded of it.
  5. The second interview is with an economist who says there’s little evidence people will pay more for better products. I would respond that it’s still worth doing even if it doesn’t lead to higher profits.
  6. The reporter closes with a flippant “Even if the new labels are more prominent, they probably won’t affect shopping for Thanksgiving dinner. They hit beef, chicken, pork, lamb and goat. But turkey gets a pass.”
  7. And that’s it! There’s no defense of why these regulations are a good idea, just “oh look at that silly government, imposing unnecessary and ineffective rules on the meat industry.”

Recycling is stupid

Then there was the report about recycling, called “Recycling? Don’t overdo it.

This one is just as bad. It focuses on how recycling is more expensive than throwing things away. It even warps what an interview subject says:

“These external benefits are actually very substantial,” [Bucknell economist Thomas Kinnaman] says. As in: They do make recycling a good deal for the planet, even if it’s a money-loser for cities.

First of all, Kinnaman seems to be saying that a holistic view of recycling costs is not as clear cut as Marketplace is making them out to be. My own town is facing the reality of our landfill (and all those near us) filling up, which creates gargantuan costs as our trash needs to be shipped farther and farther away.

Also, every time a reporter talks about “good for the planet” my alarm bells go off. The planet is not the issue. The issue is how our culture’s ravaging of the world around us makes life worse for humans. The biocentrism of 1970s framing of environmental issues is outdated, and reporters should get with the picture. Waste is a problem for people and reducing it is good for everyone; that’s why we pay more for it.

The implication is that recycling is not worth it and liberals who fetishize recycling are deluded. Marketplace, get your act together. While you’re punching hippies, you’re ignoring good policy and harming our future.

As I stated above, I think it’s great that Marketplace works to make dull topics more fun and accessible. But some journalistic standards of balance and a perspective that acknowledges the problems with the status quo would not go amiss.

Why the crappy economy is not your fault, but fixing it is your responsibility

gty_occupy_desk_nt_111209_wgNothing is quite as unsettling as realizing that the vision you have for your future is a fantasy. And in our society, with so much designation of worth reserved for the employed, reminders that the employment landscape is not very rosy can really shake our confidence in the system.

I think that discontent is the foundation of making the change our broken system needs. That’s why I love this article on Al Jazeera English writer Sarah Kendzior. My favorite section of the elegant writing is the following:

We live in the tunnel at the end of the light.

If you are 35 or younger – and quite often, older – the advice of the old economy does not apply to you. You live in the post-employment economy, where corporations have decided not to pay people. Profits are still high. The money is still there. But not for you. You will work without a raise, benefits, or job security. Survival is now a laudable aspiration.

She makes this case based on trends of increasing conversion of former permanent full-time work to lower pay and lower security work. The trend is most visible in the adjunctification of higher education, but is pervasive throughout the American economy.

Please read the article, and get angry. We can only change this sort of problem when we stop internalizing the economy’s failures and call for something better.

Smart Phone Plans: You can probably pay less

Moto XLifehacker recently conducted a survey and found out that yes, most people hate the mainstream cell phone carriers, Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, and US Cellular. Luckily, they followed it up by profiling some great alternatives. I am about to jump on one of these to save lots of money and get better service (I hope). But first! Here’s my history of cell phone plans:

  • 2008 – I got my first cell phone, on Verizon.
  • Dec 2011 – I switched to Credo Mobile, a great company that uses the Sprint network and pitches themselves as a more ethical carrier than the big five.
  • May 2013 – Frustrated with Sprint’s poor service in my home and by Credo’s growing bill ($114 when I left) and suggested by Des of Mobile Rapid Response Unit, I switched to Straight Talk ($49), one of the alternative carriers mentioned in the Lifehacker article above. Straight Talk runs on both the Verizon network (that I wanted to be on) and the Sprint network (that I wanted to get off of). Unfortunately, I didn’t do enough homework and ended up on the Sprint network again.
  • Oct 2013 – In a fit of exuberance, I dropped on the floor the fancy new handset I got from Straight Talk, and the screen broke completely. I was forced to reactivate my old handset from Credo, which I luckily still had. Less fancy, still on Sprint.
  • Nov 2013 – Lifehacker posted the list of alternatives, and I discovered that Republic Wireless might just fit the bill of what I’m looking for. They’re on the Sprint network, but they have this handy thing where your phone primarily uses wireless if it can, and only uses the cell signal if there’s no wireless. Luckily, most places I want to make calls from have wireless. And better yet: the plan I’ll probably get is only $25. Until now, they’ve only had one handset option, which isn’t great. But as of tomorrow, they’re introducing a new handset, the Moto X, which is another fancy one! I’m all over it.
  • May 2014 – If I stay with Straight Talk and the rates don’t change, this is the month I will have saved money over Credo.
  • Sep 2014 – If I switch to Republic, this is the month I will have saved money over Credo.
  • Jul 2015 – If I switch to Republic, this is the month I will have saved money over Straight Talk. Frankly, this is a bit long of a timeframe for me, but I think the improved service will be well worth it.

Traditional smart phone plans are exorbitantly expensive. I’m thrilled to be switching to a 21st century alternative that is more sanely priced.

Facebook Gaydar: Your friends’ demographics predict your own

gay on fbThis study is cool from a statistics geek perspective. But it’s disturbing from a couple other perspectives. They frame it as disturbing from a privacy perspective, which is obviously true. But I want to highlight another aspect of it that makes me a little uncomfortable: that it focuses on sexual orientation.

The tendency to be curious about others’ sexual orientation is to some degree very human and natural (see gossip) but it is also connected to a culture in which any sexual orientation (not to mention gender identity and gender expression) outside of the mainstream is considered scandalous. This study makes me feel like further power of privacy is being stripped from oppressed people, and that makes me a little uncomfortable. Of course the study is just drawing attention to the fact that this is an existing privacy risk, not creating the risk itself. But as FlowingData blogger Nathan Yau speculated in his post on the study, it’s likely that similar results would be possible for other demographics such as age and race. The focus on sexual orientation is too evocative of past (and current) cultures which sensationalize coming out and even “outing” people.

That said, it is super cool from a statistics perspective. As previously mentioned, I love using data from real life. In that respect, keep it coming. But be careful of the cultural implications of your work.

How to Talk to Little Girls

talk to girlsThe way our society implicitly teaches young girls how to behave and think about themselves is messed up. Just see Miss Representation or observe the focus the White House places on boosting the percentage of women in STEM fields (24% in 2009).

The solution to this problem begins with how we talk to these young girls. I enjoyed a Huffington Post article a few years ago on this topic, which influenced me to shift focus from praising girls (and women) for their appearance (“cute” being a prime example) to praising them more for other more substantial parts of their personality.

I recently saw another piece on the topic, a KQED report from April highlighting the research of Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck. Dweck’s research is on how best to praise kids so that they persist with difficult tasks, and one of her findings is most true for young girls:

What we’ve shown is that when you praise someone, say, ‘You’re smart at this,’ the next time they struggle, they think they’re not. It’s really about praising the process they engage in, not how smart they are or how good they are at it, but taking on difficulty, trying many different strategies, sticking to it and achieving over time.

That makes a lot of sense! It’s great finding out about little ways we can change our behavior to move away from being “part of the problem” and toward being “part of the solution”.